Papers

Working Papers

Detecting Coercion Without Visible Enforcement: Evidence from Afghanistan’s Opium Ban
Spatial triangulation methodology for identifying compliance under threat using satellite and cultivation data.

Infrastructure of Violence in Michoacán & Guerrero
How cartel violence follows transit corridors; road networks as conflict infrastructure.

Conflict, Opium & Territorial Control in North Shan
Why armed groups increasingly target transit routes over opium cultivation zones.

COMING SOON-Conflict, Deforestation & Mining in South Kivu
Mine proximity predicts conflict risk, but only when roads are present.

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